Chinese trade set to remain in growth mode in upcoming quarter
- Moderate decline in imports offset by robust exports via air and ocean freight, resulting in steady growth
- Important growth sectors include Machinery Parts, Industrial Raw Materials and Consumer Fashion Goods
SHANGHAI, CHINA – Media OutReach – 3 December 2018 – China’s trade growth remains solid at an index of 58 points — a slight decline of one point from the previous quarter, according to data from the DHL Global Trade Barometer released by DHL, the world’s leading logistics company.
The DHL Global Trade Barometer, an early indicator of global trade developments calculated using Artificial Intelligence and Big Data, shows that China’s exports via air and ocean trade show no signs of slowing down despite ongoing trade volatility between it and the United States and sentiment expecting slowing global trade momentum.
While imports for China are expected to contract in sectors like High Technology and Chemicals & Products, that decline has been largely offset by strong exports of Machinery Parts, Industrial Raw Materials, Basic Raw Materials and Consumer Fashion Goods. Both air and ocean freight volumes remain stable thanks to China’s ongoing export strength.
“This positive outlook is a welcome sign even as China continues to set the bar higher in terms of its manufacturing quality, despite emerging struggles in parts of the consumer fashion industry,” said Steve Huang, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Greater China. “Exports of raw materials will also continue to grow as China fosters and renews economic ties with trading partners, including the latest 29-deal memorandum of understanding with the Philippines for rapid infrastructural development in line with the Belt and Road. All this suggests that pessimism surrounding China’s economic fortunes may have overshot reality, with the country’s historic export strengths continuing to maintain momentum despite overarching political rhetoric.”
The Barometer’s results also indicate that global trade will continue to grow over the next three months and that the development of the previous quarters will continue. The pace of growth, however, will particularly decelerate for Asia except for China.
“The DHL Global Trade Barometer clearly shows that the state of global trade remains solid. Both air and ocean trade continue to grow around the world. However, given the smoldering trade conflicts, especially between the United States and China, and economists’ expectations that the global economy could cool down, it is not entirely surprising that trade momentum has weakened slightly,” said Tim Scharwath, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight.
Indices for all seven countries that constitute the GTB index — China, Germany, India, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States — are above 50 points. In the Global Trade Barometer methodology, an index value above 50 indicates positive growth, while values below 50 indicate contraction.
Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global Trade Barometer is an innovative and unique early indicator for the current state and future development of global trade. It is based on large amounts of logistics data that are evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence. The indicator has been developed in cooperation between DHL, the world’s leading logistics company, and IT service provider Accenture. It is published four times a year. The next release date is scheduled for March 27, 2019.
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